Paper-Selected Reconstruction-Stack Losses: Design

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Purpose

This design note defines a preliminary paper-facing subset of reconstruction-stack settings for final figures. The subset should be easy to explain, should include credible baselines, and should make the central method claim testable rather than hiding known controls.

The target aggregate metric is analysis/router_probe_times_strategy_match_rate, shown in figures as matched strategy router score.

Current Evidence Snapshot

Available random-init evidence comes from the completed Apr24 and Apr26 reconstruction-stack collections. In the unified Apr24+Apr26 ranking, the top rows are:

RankCollectionLoss settingMatched strategy router scoreFinal answer accuracy
1Apr26dist_plus_tokcc_a0p5_b0p1_d50_lin500.85560.9736
2Apr26exinv_plus_tokcc_a0p5_b0p01_d50_lin500.85330.9587
3Apr24dist_plus_tokcc_a0p5_b0p01_d50_lin500.85320.9543
4Apr26tokcc_a0p25_b0p01_const0.85120.9793
5Apr26tokcc_a0p25_b0p01_d50_lin500.84820.9626
8Apr26raw_b0p01_d50_lin500.84290.9830

Available from-entangled qwen25 0.5B evidence has the same Apr24-style loss menu. Its strongest rows are:

RankLoss settingMatched strategy router scoreFinal answer accuracy
1dist_plus_tokcc_a0p5_b0p01_d50_lin500.85081.0000
2example_inv_surp_b0p01_d50_lin500.84390.9991
3dist_norm_b0p01_d50_lin500.84310.9989
4dist_plus_tokcc_a1_b0p01_d50_lin500.83170.9986
11raw_b1_d50_lin500.46930.9652
12raw_b1_lin1000.44020.9999
13raw_b1_const0.43570.9991

Recommendation

Define the preliminary main method as:

dist_plus_tokcc_a0p5_b0p01_d50_lin50

Paper-facing name: distribution-normalized reconstruction plus concentration-corrected token reconstruction, with token alpha 0.5, beta 0.01, and a 50 percent delay plus 50 percent linear warmup.

Why this should be the first main-method candidate:

  • It is among the strongest random-init settings: Apr24 0.8532, essentially tied with the Apr26 top rows.
  • It is the strongest currently available qwen25 0.5B from-entangled setting: 0.8508.
  • It has a clean decomposition: a broad distribution-level normalization term plus a token-level concentration-corrected term.
  • It is already present in both random-init and qwen25 0.5B result sets, and the qwen25 1.5B collection is designed with the same setting.

Important caveat:

  • Apr26 raw_b0p01_d50_lin50 reaches 0.8429 on random-init. This means the paper should not frame the result as "all raw reconstruction fails." A more defensible claim is that standard ELBO-style raw beta-1 baselines fail, while low-beta delayed raw is a strong control that must be tracked separately.

Use a two-tier rule:

  1. Main paper panel: include settings available across random-init and qwen25 from-entangled runs that share the Apr24 reconstruction-stack menu and the delayed-linear schedule.
  2. Control panel or appendix panel: include low-beta raw and cc-TWR-only follow-up controls from Apr26, marking missing pretrained or future cells explicitly.

This rule keeps the main figure simple while preventing the low-beta raw result from being swept away.

Preliminary Included Settings

Main Method And Ablations

RoleLoss settingCurrent source coverageStatus
Main methoddist_plus_tokcc_a0p5_b0p01_d50_lin50Apr24 random-init; qwen25 0.5B; qwen25 1.5B planned/runninginclude
Token-alpha variantdist_plus_tokcc_a1_b0p01_d50_lin50Apr24 random-init; qwen25 0.5B; qwen25 1.5B planned/runninginclude as ablation
Distribution-only ablationdist_norm_b0p01_d50_lin50Apr24 random-init; qwen25 0.5B; qwen25 1.5B planned/runninginclude as ablation
Example-normalized ablationexample_inv_surp_b0p01_d50_lin50Apr24 random-init; qwen25 0.5B; qwen25 1.5B planned/runninginclude as ablation
Three-way ablationthree_way_equal_b0p01_d50_lin50Apr24 random-init; qwen25 0.5B; qwen25 1.5B planned/runninginclude as secondary ablation

Baselines And Strong Controls

RoleLoss settingCurrent source coverageStatus
Standard cVAE / ELBO baselineraw_b1_constApr24 random-init; qwen25 0.5B; qwen25 1.5B planned/runninginclude
Raw schedule baselineraw_b1_lin100Apr24 random-init; qwen25 0.5B; qwen25 1.5B planned/runninginclude
Raw delayed-linear baselineraw_b1_d50_lin50Apr24 random-init; qwen25 0.5B; qwen25 1.5B planned/runninginclude
Extreme low-beta raw controlraw_b0p01_constApr26 random-init onlyinclude as random-init control
Strong low-beta raw controlraw_b0p01_d50_lin50Apr26 random-init onlyinclude as caveat/control, not as a failure baseline
Missing beta-VAE raw controlraw_b0p1_constnot currently in these collectionsmark missing/future

Follow-Up Method Variants

RoleLoss settingCurrent source coverageStatus
Exinv plus cc-TWR variantexinv_plus_tokcc_a0p5_b0p01_d50_lin50Apr26 random-init onlyinclude as promising follow-up
cc-TWR-only alpha 0.25 constanttokcc_a0p25_b0p01_constApr26 random-init onlyinclude as promising follow-up
cc-TWR-only alpha 0.25 delayed-lineartokcc_a0p25_b0p01_d50_lin50Apr26 random-init onlyinclude as promising follow-up
cc-TWR-only alpha 0.5 constanttokcc_a0p5_b0p01_constApr26 random-init onlyinclude as weaker follow-up
cc-TWR-only alpha 0.5 delayed-lineartokcc_a0p5_b0p01_d50_lin50Apr26 random-init onlyinclude as weaker follow-up

Candidate Settings From User Proposal

CandidateCurrent status
raw_b1_constavailable in Apr24 random-init and qwen25 0.5B
raw_b0p1_constmissing from current selected collections
raw_b0p01_constavailable in Apr26 random-init
raw_b1_lin100available in Apr24 random-init and qwen25 0.5B
raw_b1_d50_lin50available in Apr24 random-init and qwen25 0.5B
tokcc_a0p25_b1_lin100missing; future setting
tokcc_a0p25_b1_d50_lin50missing; future setting
tokcc_a0p25_b0p01_constavailable in Apr26 random-init
tokcc_a0p25_b0p01_lin100missing; future setting
dist_plus_tokcc_a0p5_b0p01_constavailable in Apr24 random-init and qwen25 0.5B
dist_plus_tokcc_a0p5_b0p01_lin100missing; future setting
dist_norm_b0p01_constavailable in Apr24 random-init and qwen25 0.5B

Proposed Paper Figure Set

F1. Main matched-score bar plot. Rows are selected loss settings, columns or facets are regimes: random-init, qwen25 0.5B, and qwen25 1.5B when available. Metric is matched strategy router score.

F2. Baseline-vs-method decomposition. Show raw beta-1 baselines, dist-norm-only ablation, and dist+cc-TWR main method. This is the cleanest figure for the paper's main claim.

F3. Low-beta raw caveat panel. Show Apr26 raw_b0p01_const and raw_b0p01_d50_lin50 beside the main method and standard raw baselines. This protects against overclaiming that raw reconstruction always fails.

F4. Follow-up variants panel. Show exinv+cc-TWR and cc-TWR-only alpha variants as secondary evidence, not as the headline method unless the paper shifts to a broader "cc-TWR family" claim.

Conversation Structure

I suggest structuring the discussion in five passes:

  1. Claim scope. Decide whether the paper's method claim is about one setting (dist_plus_tokcc_a0p5_b0p01_d50_lin50) or a family (tokcc / dist+tokcc objectives).
  2. Fair baselines. Decide which raw settings are baselines, which are schedule/beta controls, and whether low-beta delayed raw should be in the main figure or a caveat figure.
  3. Coverage matrix. Decide which cells must exist across random-init, qwen25 0.5B, and qwen25 1.5B before a setting can appear in the main paper figure.
  4. Figure layout. Decide whether final figures are grouped by regime, by loss setting, or by claim: baseline failure, method success, and control caveats.
  5. Future-run gap list. Decide which missing settings are worth running versus which should remain explicitly marked as absent.

Open Decisions

  1. Should the main method be a single setting, dist_plus_tokcc_a0p5_b0p01_d50_lin50, or a broader cc-TWR family?
  2. Should Apr26 raw_b0p01_d50_lin50 appear in the main paper figure, or only in a caveat/control panel?
  3. Should final paper figures require coverage in both random-init and qwen25 from-entangled settings, or may Apr26-only follow-up variants appear in the main figure?
  4. Is qwen25 1.5B required for the final main claim, or is it a scale-up validation figure?
  5. Should missing candidate settings such as raw_b0p1_const, tokcc_a0p25_b1_*, and dist_plus_tokcc_a0p5_b0p01_lin100 be run, or documented as intentionally omitted?

Preliminary Recommendation

Use dist_plus_tokcc_a0p5_b0p01_d50_lin50 as the paper's main method for now. Present raw beta-1 settings as standard cVAE baselines, include distribution-only and example-normalized rows as ablations, and keep Apr26 low-beta raw delayed-linear as a strong control/caveat. Do not make the paper's main claim "raw reconstruction fails"; make it "standard raw beta-1 CVAE baselines fail to expose router-side strategy structure, while the selected normalized-plus-token reconstruction objective consistently improves matched strategy router score in the current random-init and qwen25 0.5B evidence."

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